Nigeria: Measuring the socioeconomic impacts of climate policies to guide NDC enhancement and a just transition

One of the main questions in climate policymaking is to understand the economic and social costs and benefits. The potential to create employment that these policies offer is of particular concern to developing and emerging economies with a young population that face structural challenges to generating sufficient employment opportunities for a growing number of labour market entrants.

This study analyses the impacts of Nigeria’s climate policies on employment, GDP and emissions in keeping with revised national determined contributions (NDCs). The short- to medium-term (primary) and long-term (secondary) effects are evaluated in terms of job creation and growth potential, as well as their expected impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the economy.

The 11 most relevant policies were selected from the NDCs for the analysis. Energy policies dominate the NDCs’ climate policies, reflecting the need to promote economic development and address both energy poverty and climate change. Most investments planned in the NDCs are in the power and energy sector. Other policies target transport, agriculture, forestry and industry.